The Fed’s many challenges
- How are recent geopolitical events likely to impact the Fed’s policy decisions this year?
- Despite very elevated inflation, long-term inflation expectations are still well anchored. Could recent energy price developments change this picture?
- The US hasn’t experienced stagflation since the 1970s, but that now looks like a real risk. Is this something we should worry about?
- Amalgamating all these elements, how could this play out from a policy perspective – and how does it affect our forecasts for Fed rates and the balance sheet?