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900 (31-40)
March 24, 2021
David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist & Global Head of Research and Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics have just published an updated outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The report is titled ‘Goldilocks with Inflation Risk’ and outlines how Goldilocks could be about to enter the global economy as conditions appear just right for strong growth. [more]
March 24, 2021
Region:
Our analysis suggests that the nationwide price cycle will come to an end this decade. Despite all the uncertainty, we believe the cycle is likely to end in 2024. The fundamental supply shortage should ease off in the coming years. The lower level of immigration during the pandemic is also a contributing factor. If the cycle does in fact end in 2024, we expect nominal house prices to decline for a short period of time based on comparable historical data. If house prices rise again at the historical average of approximately 2.5% per year following the correction phase, we could see an increase of around 24% over the decade, despite the interim price dip. This outlook also includes a look at the eleven German metropolitan regions. [more]
March 24, 2021
Analyst:
A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve. In a recent updated World Outlook report, Deutsche Bank’s Global Economics team has raised its forecast for global growth in 2021 to nearly 7%, which is well above consensus. Here is why. [more]
March 23, 2021
Region:
The federal government will present a supplementary budget for 2021, which would be the third supplementary budget over the past year. The volume could reach as much as EUR 60 bn (1.7% of GDP). As a result, 2021 net federal borrowing could possibly rise to as much as EUR 240 bn (6.8% of GDP), an all-time high in German history. We still stick with our 5.9% headline deficit forecast for the general government level as we doubt that all the money will be spent. This implies a structural deficit of nearly 5% of GDP this year (2020: -1.8% of GDP). [more]
March 22, 2021
Region:
Analyst:
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a surge in public debt and highlights the need to tackle sovereign risk on bank balance sheets, which remains a threat to the stability of the Banking Union. Euro-area banks hold bonds and have granted loans to their domestic sovereigns worth a combined EUR 2.1 tr, equalling 6.2% of total assets. Among the largest countries, banks in Italy have the highest exposure relative to capital (194%), followed by Spain (105%), whereas it is much lower in Germany (67%) and France (60%). Sovereign risk must be mitigated to finalise the Banking Union but this will require some honest acknowledgements by supervisors and entail restrictions for banks and politicians. [more]
March 17, 2021
Topic:
Bitcoin’s market cap of $1 trillion makes it too important to ignore. Big players who buy and sell bitcoins have considerable market-moving power. As long as asset managers and companies continue to enter the market, Bitcoin prices could continue to rise. But bitcoin transactions and tradability are still limited. And the real debate is whether rising valuations alone can be reason enough for bitcoin to evolve into an asset class, or whether its illiquidity is an obstacle. Bitcoin’s value will continue to rise and fall depending on what people believe it is worth. This is sometimes called the Tinkerbell Effect — a recognised economic term stating that the more people believe in something, the likelier it is to happen. [more]
March 15, 2021
Presenter: Annelisa Grigg, Director and Sustainability Advisor at Global Balance Ltd
Moderator: Idil Dagdelen, Research Sales & ESG Coordinator

This session highlighted how biodiversity loss will have a significant impact on society and business and fundamentally impact on the ability to deliver the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Reporting and disclosure standards for companies on biodiversity are lacking at the moment, but that is likely to change. While several biodiversity policies and legislation exist today, there are important international and regional frameworks currently under development. From the dbAccess ESG Conference March 2021. [more]
March 15, 2021
Participants: UN PRI/ European Chair of Sustainable Finance, Partner at Arabesque S-Ray
Moderator: Trisha Taneja, Head of ESG Advisory, Deutsche Bank

In this session, Nathan Fabian, Chair of the European Platform on Sustainable Finance and Dr. Todd Bridges, Global Head of Sustainable Investing & ESG Research at Arabesque S-Ray, discussed key regulatory topics impacting capital flow. The panel discussed the regulatory landscape in Europe and the US as it pertains to ESG, how upcoming regulations are impacting investors and issuers, and ultimately influencing capital flow and business strategy. From the dbAccess ESG Conference March 2021. [more]
March 15, 2021
Region:
In yesterday’s regional elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), the CDU achieved disappointing results and thus faces a dismal start into this election year. The CDU was up against two extremely popular prime ministers who appeal to voters across the political camps. However, nondescript CDU candidates, allegations around mask procurement deals and growing discontent about pandemic management are behind the heavy defeats. The new CDU party leader Armin Laschet was not able to change the party’s fortunes. Nevertheless, Laschet’s chances for Merkel’s succession remain intact, in our view. While another six months until federal elections is a long time in politics, the state elections serve as a reminder that a conservative-green coalition which is the consensus so far, is not a foregone conclusion. With Merkel’s bonus for the CDU/CSU fading, vaccine problems continuing and the surprising revival of the Liberals, other coalition options for the Greens might open up. [more]
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