1. Research
  2. Global Search
902 (31-40)
March 25, 2021
Region:
2020 was an extraordinary year for banks, as for most other industries. In Europe, banks barely made money, as revenues fell substantially and loan loss provisions doubled. Expense cuts cushioned the blow only partly. Capital and liquidity ratios reached record highs though, thanks to disciplined risk management and funding support from central banks. Once again, European banks underperformed their US peers. But how do their results compare in the longer term, ten years after the end of the financial crisis, and also vis-à-vis smaller competitors? [more]
March 24, 2021
Region:
Our analysis suggests that the nationwide price cycle will come to an end this decade. Despite all the uncertainty, we believe the cycle is likely to end in 2024. The fundamental supply shortage should ease off in the coming years. The lower level of immigration during the pandemic is also a contributing factor. If the cycle does in fact end in 2024, we expect nominal house prices to decline for a short period of time based on comparable historical data. If house prices rise again at the historical average of approximately 2.5% per year following the correction phase, we could see an increase of around 24% over the decade, despite the interim price dip. This outlook also includes a look at the eleven German metropolitan regions. [more]
March 24, 2021
Analyst:
A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve. In a recent updated World Outlook report, Deutsche Bank’s Global Economics team has raised its forecast for global growth in 2021 to nearly 7%, which is well above consensus. Here is why. [more]
March 24, 2021
David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist & Global Head of Research and Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics have just published an updated outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The report is titled ‘Goldilocks with Inflation Risk’ and outlines how Goldilocks could be about to enter the global economy as conditions appear just right for strong growth. [more]
March 23, 2021
Region:
The federal government will present a supplementary budget for 2021, which would be the third supplementary budget over the past year. The volume could reach as much as EUR 60 bn (1.7% of GDP). As a result, 2021 net federal borrowing could possibly rise to as much as EUR 240 bn (6.8% of GDP), an all-time high in German history. We still stick with our 5.9% headline deficit forecast for the general government level as we doubt that all the money will be spent. This implies a structural deficit of nearly 5% of GDP this year (2020: -1.8% of GDP). [more]
March 22, 2021
Region:
Analyst:
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a surge in public debt and highlights the need to tackle sovereign risk on bank balance sheets, which remains a threat to the stability of the Banking Union. Euro-area banks hold bonds and have granted loans to their domestic sovereigns worth a combined EUR 2.1 tr, equalling 6.2% of total assets. Among the largest countries, banks in Italy have the highest exposure relative to capital (194%), followed by Spain (105%), whereas it is much lower in Germany (67%) and France (60%). Sovereign risk must be mitigated to finalise the Banking Union but this will require some honest acknowledgements by supervisors and entail restrictions for banks and politicians. [more]
March 17, 2021
Topic:
Bitcoin’s market cap of $1 trillion makes it too important to ignore. Big players who buy and sell bitcoins have considerable market-moving power. As long as asset managers and companies continue to enter the market, Bitcoin prices could continue to rise. But bitcoin transactions and tradability are still limited. And the real debate is whether rising valuations alone can be reason enough for bitcoin to evolve into an asset class, or whether its illiquidity is an obstacle. Bitcoin’s value will continue to rise and fall depending on what people believe it is worth. This is sometimes called the Tinkerbell Effect — a recognised economic term stating that the more people believe in something, the likelier it is to happen. [more]
March 15, 2021
Analyst:
Participants: T. Rowe Price, Invesco, and Federated Hermes
Moderator: Brian Bedell, US Asset Manager Research Analyst

This session was conducted as a panel with Sustainability leaders at T. Rowe Price, Invesco, and Federated Hermes. It covered panelists’ view on the success and challenges of integrating ESG considerations within their investment processes across a wide & diverse array of investment strategies, how third-party ESG data is used with development of proprietary analytics in combination with active management to generate alpha, what the prospects are for ESG demand to accelerate in the US and what types of investment products & solutions are developing the most demand. From the dbAccess ESG Conference March 2021. [more]
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