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1146 (131-140)
May 11, 2022

Why a recession by end-2023 should be the base case

Region:
International
Podzept (Podcast series)
Analyst:
Matthew Barnard, Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Listen Audio 14M
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year. [more]
May 11, 2022

New Podcast: Why a recession by end-2023 should be the base case

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Matthew Barnard, Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Online 
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year. [more]
May 10, 2022

Outlook for the German residential property market 2022 and beyond. Base case: Rising overvaluations, end of the cycle in the near future, subdued price corrections

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
PDF 1M
We expect the German residential property market cycle to come to an end during the current decade. A combination of our different approaches suggests that, despite the uncertainties, the cycle will probably end in 2024. Prices will not necessarily undergo a massive correction from their peak, our baseline scenario foresees an isolated ending of the cycle. As migration inflows were low and new construction activity has been dynamic during the pandemic, fundamental supply shortages are a thing of the past for many German cities. The current refugee wave will only temporarily weigh on the market. [more]
May 5, 2022

Extraordinary semiconductor cycle triggered by one-time events, cyclical and geopolitical effects

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Digital, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
PDF 817k
In 2021, global sales in the semiconductor industry reached an all-time high of USD 556 bn. Despite this record figure, the industry currently faces severe challenges as the present semiconductor cycle is characterized by a triple whammy: Huge demand due to a boost for digitalization, COVID-related and non-COVID related supply shortages and geopolitical tensions. Due to the sharp rise in chip demand, new chip factories are currently being built in the US, Asia and Europe to meet rising demand over the next decade. We think, the present sales cycle will be extraordinary long. [more]
April 29, 2022

European banks: On robust footing in turbulent times

Region:
Europe
Talking Point
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Jan Schildbach
Online PDF 135k
Like the real economy, the European banking sector is facing headwinds due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, balance sheets and profitability are strong; indeed, 2021 was banks’ most successful year since the financial crisis and capital ratios are at record highs. And while loan loss provisions may now rise from unusually low levels, net interest income should also benefit considerably from higher interest rates as central banks combat surging inflation. However, both geopolitical and macroeconomic policy uncertainty remain remarkably high. [more]
April 29, 2022

Declining cost of FX hedges creates opportunities to raise hedge ratios

Region:
International
Corporate Bank Research
Analyst:
Bryant Xu, Mallika Sachdeva
Online 
Deutsche Bank Research has launched a new series of Asia Corporate Strategy Notes for our corporate clients, focusing on risk management recommendations in currency and rates markets.

The first report in this series argues that corporations should take advantage of declining Asia FX hedging costs to raise USD and EUR hedge ratios. [more]
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