Over the past year, the view that a recession would be needed to enable the Fed to achieve its firm target of returning inflation to 2% has gone from long shot to consensus view to, essentially, a coin toss. In their recent US Economic Perspectives report, Deutsche Bank Research attempts to answer the question: Recession or soft landing: Is disinflation different this time? [more]

Germany’s growth is under pressure from renewed cyclical and structural headwinds. In this edition of Focus Germany we introduce our new Nowcast Model for German GDP, predicting that the German economy should have expanded in Q2, but that risks for activity in H2 are increasing. We take the summer break in Berlin as an opportunity for a midterm review of the traffic-light coalition’s work. In a historic flashback we revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the sick man of the euro and which policy measures transformed the country into an Economic superstar a decade later. We find interesting parallels to today’s situation. [more]

Please watch Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti discuss the latest US consumer price report and its implications for monetary policy with Americas communications head Brian Blackstone. [more]

In this report, we analyze the recent developments in the market share of electric cars in important car markets (Europe, USA, China) and the role of German manufacturers or group brands in this market segment. The market share of German OEMs in the field of e-mobility varies in the major automotive markets. In Europe, their market share for electric cars is currently slightly below that for all new passenger car registrations. In the US, German manufacturers have a larger share of the electric car market than in the overall market. In China, however, German manufacturers are noticeably behind domestic suppliers and Tesla. In all markets, we expect competition in the field of e-mobility to continue to increase. [more]

What does the latest US jobs data mean for the economy and monetary policy? Please watch Deutsche Bank’s senior US economist Brett Ryan break down the latest employment report with spokesperson Claire Rodgers. [more]

In the second edition of our Energy Transition Monitor we disentangle the drivers of lower economy-wide energy consumption into cyclical (winter-recession) and structural (loss of production capacities, energy-efficiency measures) factors. Moreover, we take a look at the shift in primary energy sources – from gas towards renewables and coal and why we are (finally) seeing a higher speed of solar PV build-out. We also provide an update of our gas supply-demand model for the upcoming winter. Finally, we summarize current policy action aimed at boosting domestic energy capacity (solar and wind) and improve the overall economy’s energy efficiency, both at the EU and national level. Our earlier thematic analysis on German gas supply and Germany's energy transition includes: "Energy Transition Monitor #1 - what, when and how", "Costs of electricity generation: system costs matter" and "EU Green Deal Industrial Plan - status update and how to fund it". [more]

To strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy, its authorities are also pushing for a retail payment solution provided by European players. A market-backed project and a state-backed project have emerged. While the European Payments Initiative (EPI) will build on existing instant payment infrastructure and the wallet is supposed to go live early next year, the legal and technical foundations for the digital euro are still under development. As both solutions could easily cannibalize each other, better coordination would benefit Europe. [more]

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is rampant as enterprises inundate tech firms demanding AI products, yet there are still operational, governance and cultural barriers. [more]

The current development of the Rhine's water levels brings back memories of the previous year, when there were massive problems for Rhine navigation during summer. Since June, the level has fallen by a similar rate as last year or in 2018, which also saw a draught. Should the water levels approach or reach the lows of 2018 or 2022, this could impair the recovery of the German economy, which we already expect to be very modest. [more]

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the way investments are made, including thematic investing. In a new report by the quantitative research team, they provide a comprehensive framework for using AI in active thematic investing. AI can not only identify the ever-changing market drivers but also help make informed investment decisions with diverse exposure. [more]