What does the latest US jobs data mean for the economy and monetary policy? Please watch Deutsche Bank’s senior US economist Brett Ryan break down the latest employment report with spokesperson Claire Rodgers. [more]

In the second edition of our Energy Transition Monitor we disentangle the drivers of lower economy-wide energy consumption into cyclical (winter-recession) and structural (loss of production capacities, energy-efficiency measures) factors. Moreover, we take a look at the shift in primary energy sources – from gas towards renewables and coal and why we are (finally) seeing a higher speed of solar PV build-out. We also provide an update of our gas supply-demand model for the upcoming winter. Finally, we summarize current policy action aimed at boosting domestic energy capacity (solar and wind) and improve the overall economy’s energy efficiency, both at the EU and national level. Our earlier thematic analysis on German gas supply and Germany's energy transition includes: "Energy Transition Monitor #1 - what, when and how", "Costs of electricity generation: system costs matter" and "EU Green Deal Industrial Plan - status update and how to fund it". [more]

To strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy, its authorities are also pushing for a retail payment solution provided by European players. A market-backed project and a state-backed project have emerged. While the European Payments Initiative (EPI) will build on existing instant payment infrastructure and the wallet is supposed to go live early next year, the legal and technical foundations for the digital euro are still under development. As both solutions could easily cannibalize each other, better coordination would benefit Europe. [more]

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is rampant as enterprises inundate tech firms demanding AI products, yet there are still operational, governance and cultural barriers. [more]

The current development of the Rhine's water levels brings back memories of the previous year, when there were massive problems for Rhine navigation during summer. Since June, the level has fallen by a similar rate as last year or in 2018, which also saw a draught. Should the water levels approach or reach the lows of 2018 or 2022, this could impair the recovery of the German economy, which we already expect to be very modest. [more]

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the way investments are made, including thematic investing. In a new report by the quantitative research team, they provide a comprehensive framework for using AI in active thematic investing. AI can not only identify the ever-changing market drivers but also help make informed investment decisions with diverse exposure. [more]

Precious metals and gold in particular have befuddled analytical attempts to explain and predict prices, perhaps because no single framework seems to work without fail over time. While some might throw up their hands and avoid precious metals altogether, our response is twofold – first, that there are tried and true basic principles that can be applied to explain precious metals performance over the economic cycle, and second, that deviations from frameworks are useful learning opportunities in and of themselves.
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Precious metals and gold in particular have befuddled analytical attempts to explain and predict prices, perhaps because no single framework seems to work without fail over time. While some might throw up their hands and avoid precious metals altogether, our response is twofold – first, that there are tried and true basic principles that can be applied to explain precious metals performance over the economic cycle, and second, that deviations from frameworks are useful learning opportunities in and of themselves. [more]

We have consistently argued over the last 2-3 years that the US is heading for its first genuine policy-led boom-bust cycle in at least four decades. The inflation we see was induced largely by expansive fiscal and monetary policy, and the aggressive rate hikes needed to tame that have now materialised. Avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented. [more]

Can Artificial Intelligence (AI) help you beat the market? In a new video, Ganchi Zhang highlights our report exploring how you can use AI as a tool to identify new market drivers and turn them into tradable baskets of securities. Our report also discusses how quantitative methods automate the steps involved in constructing a thematic index, including theme identification, relevance scoring, and portfolio construction with an example of venture capital replication. In the report he shows how generative AI can be used to provide contextual information for the selections. Clients of dbResearch can access the full report on research.db.com [more]