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1215 (61-70)
June 12, 2023

Heat pumps take the lead in new buildings, but share in existing buildings still low

Region:
Germany
Chart in Focus
Topic:
Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jule Mau
Online PDF 120k
Electric heat pumps are becoming increasingly popular with German homebuilders. In 2022, they already supplied the primary heating energy in more than half of all homes in new buildings. In the 1st quarter of 2023, this share even rose to 55%. Thus, heat pumps have taken over the market leadership in a short time. An important reason for the rapid growth of their market share is government subsidies, which can account for up to 40% of the total cost. [more]
June 9, 2023

European bank performance - As good as it gets, despite recent wobbles?

Region:
Europe
Talking Point
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Jan Schildbach
Online PDF 95k
European banks are running at full steam, achieving the best start to a year since the financial crisis – the stress in March notwithstanding. Revenues have been buoyed by exceptional growth in interest income, while provisions for loan losses have fallen back again and costs remain in check. Capital and liquidity positions continue to be very robust, in spite of ample returns to shareholders and TLTRO repayments to the ECB. There are some clouds on the horizon though: interest rate increases are likely coming to an end and loan growth may slow further. [more]
June 7, 2023

Is lending tight? Financing conditions for German companies

Region:
Germany
Talking Point
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Jan Schildbach
Online PDF 212k
Corporate lending is slowing substantially but this is primarily a normalization and due to subdued demand at least as much as it is due to supply conditions, i.e. banks’ tighter credit standards. At +8% yoy, credit expansion is still substantial. Only two industries are currently seeing a contraction. More worrying is the drying up of the corporate bond market where net issuance has collapsed since autumn. It is suffering from the double whammy of much higher interest rates and the disappearance of its dominant buyer of recent years, the ECB. [more]
June 7, 2023

AI in action: where is the smart money going?

Region:
International
Podzept (Podcast series)
Analyst:
Adrian Cox, Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure
Listen Audio 22M
Artificial intelligence is an overnight success that has been many years in the making. But where is it going next? In our latest Podzept episode, Dr Marion Laboure, Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace and Adrian Cox, analyse the details of an extensive database of AI venture capital deals and patents to anticipate what innovations will soon be arriving on our doorsteps. [more]
June 7, 2023

World Outlook: The Waiting Game…

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid
PDF 698k
Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade. [more]
May 31, 2023

Video: Products in the quant FX space

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Rohini Grover
Watch video 
With the rapid advancements in technology and the increasing availability of high-quality data, quantitative FX research is becoming more sophisticated, allowing financial institutions and investors to make more informed decisions and navigate the complex and volatile foreign exchange markets. In a new video Rohini Grover, FX strategist, provides an overview of Deutsche Bank Research’s offerings in the FX quant space.

[more]
May 30, 2023

Can AI help high-labour firms to boost returns?

Region:
International
Podzept (Podcast series)
Analyst:
Adrian Cox, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Listen Audio 21M
Artificial intelligence offers the tantalising prospect of improving the perennial underperformance of companies with many employees.

In this podcast, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Adrian Cox discuss why high-staff companies tend to have a lower market capitalisation, thinner margins and lower growth rates than lower-staff ones. They analyse evidence that suggests AI could enable high-employee companies to get more value from each staff member. That may generate an outsize benefit in return on equity and potentially catalyse equity market returns in the years to come. [more]
May 26, 2023

Just a technical recession? Really?

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
PDF 2M
With Q1 GDP growth revised to -0.3% we now expect annual GDP to shrink by 0.3% in 2023. With the expected US recession weighing on German economic momentum towards year end we have cut our annual forecast for GDP growth in 2024 to 0.5% from 1.0%. Meanwhile, the energy transition policy is putting strains on government cohesion, as can be seen from the failure to agree on a piece of climate legislation this week. Spending pressures and debt-brake limits add to tensions. Still, none of the three ruling parties has an incentive to trigger early elections. [more]
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