1. Research
    2. Home
    Global
    Video: Global digital leadership: A two-horse race?overlay
    March 26, 2019
    Videos
    In the competition for global leadership in technologies like artificial intelligence, most observers see a two-horse race – between China and the United States. But what about Europe? Can it ever catch up to the galloping favorites? It won’t be easy. The digital economy in the United States has big advantages: a large domestic market, a risk-taking investment culture, and plenty of innovative companies and world-class universities. US tech giants were first-movers out of the gates, and used the network effects of the platform economy to dominate not only the US, but many other markets worldwide.
    UN Climate Summit: The most inconvenient message remains unsaidoverlay
    December 14, 2018
    Talking Point
    Ahead of and during the UN Climate Summit at Katowice, the usual warnings were heard, saying that a reduction in global carbon emissions was urgently necessary. However, these political calls are much too vague. Instead, the most inconvenient message remains unsaid: The technologies which are available today and in the foreseeable future will, in all probability, prove insufficient to counteract climate change to the necessary extent and with the necessary speed and, at the same time, allow households to stick to their consumption patterns and continue with the well-established division of labour along international production chains.
    The multiple stages of the blockchain revolution – or into the crypto future and backoverlay
    December 12, 2018
    EU Monitor
    Since the rally in 2017, the buzzwords bitcoin and blockchain have been omnipresent in the public. Still, the understanding of how much potential the technology actually offers is often rudimentary. To shed more light onto the discussion, we discuss the manifold technological facets as well as the social changes that might come on the heels of the technology. After outlining the utopia, we point out the technical as well as the social hurdles that are standing in the way of the revolution.
    Europe
    EU elections countdown #3: Meet the EU(ro)scepticsoverlay
    April 11, 2019
    EU Monitor
    Soft and hard EU(ro)sceptic as well as anti-establishment parties could account for one-quarter up to one-third of the seats in the next EP, according to our updated poll-based projections. We have doubts about whether Eurosceptic and nationalistic groups in the EP will be able to overcome their previous discrepancies and build a significantly more united bloc. However, even without a joint agenda, Eurosceptics could make coalition building (as on the national level) much more complex and increasingly split the next EP into two camps.
    European Central Bank: Updated capital key “forces“ the ECB to reduce holdings of Italian, Spanish and French bondsoverlay
    April 3, 2019
    Chart in Focus
    At the recent meeting of the Governing Council on 7 March 2019, the ECB decided to maintain an extremely expansionary degree of monetary accommodation in future. It now announced to keep target rates at their present extraordinarily low levels at least through year-end 2019 – instead of just "through the summer", as previously pledged. Furthermore, it reiterated that it intends to maintain the huge size of EMU sovereign bond holdings purchased between March 2015 and the end of December 2018 for an incalculable period of time. As a consequence, principal payments from maturing securities bought under the APP (asset purchase programme), including sovereign bonds from the PSPP portfolio (public sector purchase programme) have to be reinvested in full. This ought to support demand for EMU bonds for some time to come, putting downward pressure on yields.
    Digital structural change and the welfare state in the 21st centuryoverlay
    March 25, 2019
    EU Monitor
    While digitalisation does promise significant additional prosperity, it also threatens to lead to higher inequality. A major automation wave or increasingly capital-intensive production would reduce the overall wage share and raise corporate and capital income. According to our scenario analysis, the EU countries would, on average, have to deal with a huge annual fiscal deficit if automation dramatically reduced employment. It is uncertain how digitalisation will affect the demand for labour and the public finances. Nevertheless, governments should try and prepare their countries for the future, for example by paying more attention to education policy and adapting the international tax system to the realities of the 21st century, for example in the field of corporate taxation.
    Germany
    Exports and autos weigh heavily on the German economy in 2019overlay
    April 9, 2019
    Focus Germany
    If you think of Germany in the night (and you are an economist) three questions will jolt you from your sleep. Will external demand recover? Will the auto industry overcome its WLTP-induced supply shock and (if you are a Keynesian economist) will the government launch a fiscal package? The answers, of course, are not independent of each other. (Included in this issue: German exports 2019, world trade, the automotive industry's performance, public finances and the view from Berlin)
    German auto industry: WLTP followed by lacklustre demandoverlay
    March 18, 2019
    Talking Point
    Although the negative effects from the WLTP roll-out are currently petering out in German auto statistics, the recent weakness of global demand argues against a swift recovery of auto production in Germany. In 2019, passenger car sales look set to shrink slightly or at best stagnate in some key markets (US, EMU, UK), whilst rising only moderately in others (China). A rebound is unlikely to materialise before H2 2019, when output is also expected to turn positive in year-over-year terms. Going by the production index, annualised automotive output in Germany ought to be more or less flat in 2019, in our view.
    German property and metropolis market outlook 2019overlay
    March 14, 2019
    Germany Monitor
    The house price cycle in Germany should remain in place in 2019. But we expect much more divergence across regions and a heavily increasing complexity of causal impact channels. Led by immigration and the continuous labour market uptrend, house prices and rents will likely continue to rise. The risk of overvaluations and a full-blown price bubble in the German housing market is rising. However, the price uptrend is likely to continue for years to come, in Germany as a whole and in most major cities. In this report we look at the housing markets in Munich, Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Stuttgart and Leipzig and we comment on the German office market.
    Thematic
    The sprint for sportswearoverlay
    April 9, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Over the past 12 months, sportswear brands have grown exponentially and their shares are up 30% even against the background of general nervousness in equity markets. What is behind this optimism, and is it still warranted when there are so many concerns about global growth?
    RMB bond index inclusion and its impactoverlay
    April 4, 2019
    Thematic Research
    April 1 marked an important milestone for China’s financial markets, as Chinese Yuan-denominated bonds are to be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. According to Bloomberg, the index will include over 360 eligible bonds, with a c.6% weight, making it the fourth-largest currency component in the index, after the USD, the EUR and the JPY, and the inclusion will take place over a 20-month period.
    Monthly Chart Book: April Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)overlay
    April 3, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Key highlights from Torsten Slok’s, Chief Economist, Monthly Chart Book detailing macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.
    The House View
    Balancing outoverlay
    April 11, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views going forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    Spring in sight?overlay
    March 12, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    At the crossroadsoverlay
    February 8, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, German/EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    Konzept
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
    Big data shakes up ESG investingoverlay
    October 4, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks.
    Automation – not a job killeroverlay
    June 6, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    About 250 years on from the first industrial revolution, we appear to be on the brink of a new age of automation, one dominated by complex robots and artificial intelligence. In this issue, we examine the impact of the next generation of automation on workers, industry, and society at large. Evidence from history, economics, and our industry analysts suggest that robots are more likely to complement us than replace us.
    1.8.0-SNAPSHOT