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Global

After decades of rapid globalisation, national economies and financial systems are more closely connected than ever before. At the same time, open markets and free competition are increasingly under criticism and even restricted. A major part of the work of Deutsche Bank Research therefore focuses on how Europe fares in an international comparison, how changing structures and the regulatory framework influence the development of financial service providers, their clients and financial markets globally, and which opportunities and risks result from long-term megatrends such as climate change, demographic change, digitalisation and new forms of mobility.

317 Documents
September 29, 2022
Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [more]
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September 28, 2022
In a new annual report ‘Long-term asset return study 2022: How we got here and where we’re going…..’ our thematics team explore 2022, which has been one of the toughest years for financial markets in decades. Bonds and equities are declining in unison, and we are now in the first global bear market for government bonds in 70 years. Read an extract touching on these themes, but with the main report focusing on how we got into the perilous economic, social and political situation in which we find ourselves today. Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here. [more]
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September 22, 2022
Analyst:
Do you have Private Equity in your portfolio and worry about illiquidity and valuation markdowns?

In this new video, Ganchi Zhang from our Quantitative Investment Solutions Research team summaries how our PE replication framework harnesses a better liquidity and risk profile. [more]
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September 22, 2022
We believe Consumer Staples companies are defined by the health and strength of their brands. As a result, we’ve just published a major piece of research which we call ‘the Brand Wagon’. In the report we analyse A&P investment over the last 25 years for the 26 largest Consumer Staples companies we cover in both Europe and the US.

This analysis allows us to assess how company investment in brands affects both financial and share price performance over the long term. We also look at how changing media consumption habits are impacting the way Consumer Staples companies build brands and whether the shift to digital versus traditional is making marketing investment cheaper or more effective. [more]
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September 14, 2022
The two big drivers of corporate returns over the last decade have been upended in 2022. Specifically, corporates can no longer rely on higher debt or fatter profit margins as they have done post-financial crisis. Instead, to increase returns on equity, they might need to focus on generating more sales from existing assets - in other words, boost their asset turnover. [more]
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September 9, 2022
Analyst:
‘Q&A with’ speaks to Tim Rokossa, Head of Company Research, Germany and Head of Autos Research. Tim and his team have just been ranked No.1 in the Institutional Investor’s 2022 All-Europe Research Team. Tim shares his outlook on what’s next for the automotive sector as it faces numerous challenges. [more]
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September 9, 2022
New Podzept Podcast. The big bust in share prices of Alternative Food stocks has echoes of the dot.com boom & bust in 2000. Yet, just as the bursting of the tech bubble did not stop the inevitable development and adoption of technology, Deutsche Bank Research see the Food Tech revolution as likely continuing despite the cooling of last year’s market euphoria. Olga Cotaga and Luke Templeman, both Thematic Research Analysts, discuss the growth potential in the industry as it continues to simmer, but with the potential to change food as we know it. [more]
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August 18, 2022
Analyst:
July saw a notable rebound in equity and bond markets – albeit perhaps counterintuitively, given how initially worse economic data had sparked expectations of a dovish Fed pivot. But then investors had to adjust expectations again, after July employment numbers suggested that the Fed may stay on course. According to Blaz Zlicar, markets will continue to be in a state of flux: inflation vs growth. He says “That is the name of the game these days”. Watch this video for more. [more]
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