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Election could bring sweeping changes to the economic outlook

Matthew Luzzetti

Matthew Barnard

In this episode
The 2020 election is now less than a week away. While all elections have implications for the economic outlook, the two candidates for this year’s contest have historically divergent views on essentially all important aspects of economic policy. In this podcast, we consider the implications for the economic outlook of the possible combinations of president and Senate.

Election could bring sweeping changes to the economic outlook
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What we discuss
  • The economic impact of the various outcomes next week.
    If we get a definitive outcome for the president and/or Senate next week, there is a good chance the results could be contested in a number jurisdictions, adding another dimension of risk.
  • A Biden win and Democrats taking the Senate.
    What would that mean for the economy in 2021 and beyond?
  • dbResearch views the chances of Biden win and a Republican Senate at 20-25%, based on polling data and projections from outside poll aggregators. How would that play out for the economy and stimulus?  Might an underappreciated benefit from this be that Biden could reach across the aisle and work with Republicans to pass legation on infrastructure and healthcare? 
  • dbResearch views a Trump win and a Republican Senate at 5-10%. This is a non-zero chance that we do need to consider. What would be the key implications – essentially status quo?  
  • The Senate outcome is likely to be a critical determinant of the economic policy landscape over the next four years. Given all of the uncertainties around mail-in ballots, when could investors expect clarity about the election outcome?

 

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