1. Research

National People's Congress Preview

Yi Xiong

Luke Templeman

In this episode
This year's National People's Congress (NPC) will start on Friday, March 5, and will last for about 2 weeks. In this podcast we provide a preview of the key policy issues for the NPC where we expect the government will set a floor growth target at 7-7.5% for 2021, leaving sufficient room to pursue its longer-term policy priorities. The 2021 budget will likely roll back about 60% of Covid-19 related stimulus measures. Nevertheless, government spending will likely increase 7% over last year, thanks to a strong fiscal revenue outlook.

National People's Congress Preview
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What we discuss
  • What will be China’s growth target for this year and for the long term?
  • How will the government achieve its growth target, given high public debt?
  • What reforms to the domestic market will be introduced under the new “dual circulation” strategy?
  • Will China open up its economy further, or does the new strategy imply that it will become more closed?